"Overreacting" or concerned?

I have seen a lot of “what are you worried about” posts concerning the Novel Coronavirus, (aka COVID-19 Coronavirus, aka Wuhan Coronavirus) the latest strain of the coronavirus, and the comparisons being made to Influenza A and B that we have this flu season, so I decided to take a look at the facts being reported.

First, COVID-19. Here is the website I checked to get the stats on COVID-19:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.


As of this late-night writing, there have been 86,992 confirmed cases. Of those confirmed cases, 45,313 have been closed. 42,334 have recovered, and 2,979 have died. That means of those cases that have been closed, 6.59% of the closed cased ended by fatality.

There are 41,679 active cases, and of those 34,111 are mild cases and 7,568 are serious or critical cases, meaning 18.15% of the active cases are serious or critical. Many of them will recover, but it is realistic to think that several will not, as evidenced by the 6.59% fatality rate of the closed cases. However – just for the sake of discussion/argument, let’s keep it to straight facts. With 86,992 confirmed cases globally and 2,979 confirmed deaths so far, the mortality rate of COVID-19 would be 3.42%.

Now, Influenza A and B. Here is the website for the CDC’s estimates for the ongoing flu season:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 As of this late-night writing, the CDC estimates 32,000,000 cases of influenza on the low end and 45,000,000 on the high end. To make things easier, we will use the low-end numbers in our statistics here. Of those 32,000,000 estimated flu cases, 14,000,000 have led to medical visits resulting in 310,000 hospitalizations and ultimately 18,000 deaths. These are estimates based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary, so that is why I am using the low-end numbers. Based on these low-end numbers, 0.05 of influenza cases end up in a fatality. Of course, any death is one too many, so we mourn those 18,000 US lives lost.

Out of curiosity, I took the 32,000,000 flu cases and multiplied it by the COVID-19 mortality rate of 6.59% of the closed cases would have resulted in 2,108,800 deaths. Even if we use the 3.42% number from above and apply it to the low-end estimate of 32,000,000 flu cases, that would still result in 1,094,400 deaths in the US alone.

And THAT is why many of us are concerned. If this thing gets away from us, hundreds of thousands of Americans could perish.

Do I think it will get to the point of the Spanish flu of 1918-1919 where there were 500,000,000 infected worldwide, with 675,000 deaths in the US and an estimated 20 to 50 million globally? No, I don’t. I believe our “overreaction” will save thousands upon thousands of lives nationally, and millions globally, because as a human race we have hopefully learned from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of a mere 101 years ago. I believe the CDC and World Health Organization do everything in their power to overcome these diseases, but we also can’t let complacency overcome caution.

The facts are there. This is a rapidly spreading virus with a high mortality rate, so I will wash my hands even more than I already do, I will continue to cover up when I cough or sneeze, and I will clean and disinfect whatever I can whenever I can. I will do everything I can to make sure I don’t become the next victim or worse, pass it along to anyone else. I hope you will too. Maybe the country “overreacting” will save lives. Maybe it will be yours. Or mine.

Yeah, I’m OK with that.